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Group 1 Cox Plate Preview 2023

Australia’s weight-for-age championship is finally here with a deep field of stars to tackle The Valley on Saturday.

ANAMOE winning the Ladbrokes Cox Plate
ANAMOE winning the Ladbrokes Cox Plate Picture: Colin Bull / Sportpix

Give me the Cox Plate over any race, year in year out. Sprints are great, big handicaps unique, but the Group 1 W S Cox Plate (2040m) is the best of the best.

Romantic Warrior heads the market as an excellent favourite because he's very divisive, perhaps even more so than he was first up. His run in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) was good enough to give hope he can produce his best here, but not so good as to say he's just going to win.

In fact, his run in the Turnbull wasn't bad at all, and the form out of it looks strong. 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in the Caulfield Cup all came through the Turnbull, both strongly run races. It should do more to bring Romantic Warrior on fitness wise than any amount of work they could've put into him, and from all reports he has come on plenty.

Four months off, into such a strong contest and giving away weight to all, he's still run to 118 by Timeform's scale, only two pounds off what he ran when seven months between runs winning the Group 2 Bochk Jockey Club Cup (2000m) before then winning the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup (2000m) by 4.5 lengths.

I think he's on track to run somewhere near his 125 peak and if that's the case, he deserves to be favourite because not many in this field can get to that level.

In fact, in the past year, only Romantic Warrior, Gold Trip, Mr Brightside and Fangirl (with her mare's allowance) have run to 125, which is typically required to win a Cox Plate.

Zaaki and Alligator Blood have both been right up there in the low 120s and it's easy to say Alligator Blood is better equipped this year, having run fifth in this race last year, Zaaki fourth. He saw out a strong 2000m last time but Mr Brightside did absolutely handle him in both the Memsie and Makybe Diva. They were over shorter, but that's typically been Alligator Blood's go.

Mr Brightside was off his form in Sydney with Fangirl looking awesome there. He was a month between runs there and I don't think will have any issue with 2040m. He was good in last year's Cox Plate when ridden back but they've scrapped that bad idea and ridden him forward. I think he lands leader's back from barrier 2 and if a gap comes, he's got the turn of foot to win.

For Fangirl, the query has to be the map. She got absolutely everything in her favour to win the King Charles. If she replicates that she's in the finish, but more likely she'll be in the second half of the field, and her median 'best form' probably isn't good enough, whereas she might even have to elevate again to win.

Gold Trip has run to 125+ and 126 in his past two starts, which actually see him rate on top. He was unlucky not to finish closer in last year's race and is going better this year. Perhaps the query is backing up out of two strong tests on firm decks, and going back in trip. He'd want them to go breakneck speed and bring out the best stayer, coming with a big sweeping run. I think he can win, but I don't love the set up compared to last year off a gentle Caulfield Cup.

Down to the three-year-olds, of which there are (technically) three. Victoria Road, like State Of Rest and Adelaide, as well as El Bodegon last year, is a northern hemisphere three-year-old, and thankfully we have the ratings to compare how he measures up.

Victoria Road is rated 115 by Timeform off his last start when third at Leopardstown, also with a 114 when winning the Group 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (1609m).

State Of Rest was rated 118 and went to 125 to win the 2021 Cox Plate.

El Bodegon was rated 115 and went to 124 when third last year.

Adelaide was rated 124 and ran to 128 to win the 2014 Cox Plate.

Perhaps the biggest query, other than the jump Victoria Road does have to make, is the distance. He won a Group 3 over 1800m but was well beaten his only attempt at 2000m, albeit the winner was Ace Impact, but he had his chance and finished well behind some who would be long in the market here.

We've already seen the form out of his last start in Australia, with the 120 rated Buckaroo finishing a head to the good of Victoria Road and beaten 5 lengths by Fangirl at Randwick. I'm happy to be against Victoria Road, and the other three-year-olds for that matter.

The past three southern hemisphere three-year-olds to win the race were Shamus Award, So You Think and Savabeel.

Shamus Award and So You Think came through the Guineas, rated 115 and and 114+ at their best respectively, then running to 124 and 125 to win the Cox Plate.

Savabeel was rated 119 off the Spring Champion and only had to run to 122 to win the Cox Plate.

Militarize is rated 116 at his best but I thought he had to do more in the Guineas. His run was five pounds lower than So You Think's Guineas run and I don't think Militarize has the speed to land in the first half even with the low draw. King Colorado potentially can go forward but he would need a bigger spike in ratings than we've ever seen from a three-year-old to win.

After all that, two horses make the most appeal and they are Romantic Warrior and Mr Brightside. Both have the peak ratings necessary to win, both look to get pretty good runs just off the speed, and both should be fitter from last start. Happy to back them both.