The best day of the Melbourne Autumn takes place on Saturday at Caulfield, headlined by the Blue Diamond.
This year's Blue Diamond looks a good field with a number of chances. The premiere form line, I think, is the Colts & Geldings Prelude, with three horses through that race all genuine chances.
Bodyguard showed a sharp turn of foot to come from midfield in the race-fastest splits, running to 111 and doing it first up off an easy debut win at Flemington.
The betting there was interesting. Stablemate to Bodyguard, High Octane, was heavily supported late to start a clear $2.30 favourite over Bodyguard at $4.20 and had no luck whatsoever from barrier one.
His first up win in the Preview rated well and was strong late, only a length or so off what Bodyguard did in the Prelude, who it must be noted is under a lameness cloud on Thursday.
I don't think there should be basically anything between them in the market, with Stay Focused also some chance having run well for second in the Prelude. Whether he can improve enough remains to be seen but he did race wide and greenly and isn't hopeless.
The Chairman's Stakes form has been well respected, with Coleman the current favourite. Our ratings have nothing between Coleman and Bodyguard but I really don't love the set up for Coleman.
Both wins have been at 1000m and he had every chance sitting on the pace in a small field there and while the Chairman's more or less holds its own strike-rate wise, I don't like the gap between runs and straight to 1200m for Coleman who will face a far different scenario.
The big watch is Lady Of Camelot who has trimmed right up, into second favourite which I think is fair enough. At weight-for-age we've got nothing between her and the boys and she won the Widden in blistering time first up.
If Gai & Adrian think she's the right filly to send as their only chance for the Blue Diamond in one of, if not the best two-year-old season I've ever seen from a stable, she's the right filly.
She'll likely lead these from the soft draw and with any pattern onside, she'll be very hard to catch.
Happy to side with Lady Of Camelot from High Octane, with Fearless the best roughie at 40-1. He'll relish a high pressure 1200m but is likely to be back near last and will need them to overdo it. Backing all three.
Also on the card are the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) and Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m). The Futurity should really be a cakewalk for Mr Brightside, who was a fair way below his best in the Orr first up but still ran down Pride Of Jenni and has less to beat this time.
Ideally he settles a bit closer this time and $1.50 is probably fair enough for him.
The Oakleigh Plate is an absolute raffle. The $4.50 for rKing's Gambit looks okay. I like a fast run 1100m around Caulfield from barrier one. Plenty of gaps should open up and it sets up similarly to his win in the Roman Consul before a spell.
The handicapper has done their job because legitimately nothing in the race would out-and-out surprise me. Sghirripa is flying and on the up and brings competitive ratings with upside that have him right in my calculations at around the $10 mark.
