The third and final Group One of The Pinnacles takes place on Saturday with The Northerly Stakes.

Arguably the most fascinating of the three Group Ones races in Perth, the Group 1 Northerly Stakes (1800m) is named after one of the greats.

The fighting tiger was rated 129 by Timeform at his peak and ran to a rating of 125 or better on nine occasions – top stuff.

The top-rated horse in this year's field is Attrition, who is rated 119 on the Timeform scale, achieved when winning the Group 2 Hill Stakes (1900m) at Rosehill two starts ago. He also ran to 119 winning the Group 1 Toorak Handicap (1600m) last year, and is coming off a rating of 117 in the Five Diamonds.

Attrition had little luck last time out and never really got the opportunity to let down fully, so it's fair to say he's coming here at something like his best.

Going back to 2007 on Racing & Sports historical data, which is when the former Fruit 'n' Veg Stakes became the Kingston Town Classic, we can see that both the average winning Timeform rating is 116.

The simple way of using ratings to do form is to establish a winning standard, in this case 116 seems appropriate, and then determine which horses are capable of running that rating, and how likely they are to do so.

The only horses to hold a peak Timeform rating of 116 or better currently are Attrition (119), Numerian (118) and Light Infantry Man (116).

Light Infantry Man started favourite in the Group 1 Railway Stakes (1600m) but was plain disappointing there with no real excuses. He regressed on his win at Flemington which would still likely need to be improved upon here, which seems unlikely given he loses McDonald and draws wide.

Numerian ran to 110 with Timeform first up in the Group 3 Craven Plate (1800m), working home okay in a slowly run race. He can improve enough here to be in the finish. While Democracy Manifest was a far better run in that Craven Plate, that's as good as he's ever gone and he always needs plenty of luck, even more so from barrier two here which looks tricky.

As those are the only horses with a Timeform rating up to the winning standard here, we look for something that could improve to that level, and realistically it looks as if Storyville is the only one.

It's no secret that three-year-old fillies have done very well here in recent years, winning four of the past nine, and we're going to look at not just the winners, but every three-year-old filly (of which there are 10) to run in the Northerly/Kingston Town since 2007, with their before and after ratings seen in the table below.

Looking at these results, we can see that three-year-old fillies, on average, improve 3.5 pounds on the Timeform scale, and that those rated around that 105 mark or better tend to do pretty well.

Conveniently, Storyville is rated 106 by Timeform off her win in the Group 2 WA Guineas (1600m) last time out, having run to 105+ prior in the Group 3 WA Champion Fillies Stakes (1600m).

In both of those wins she's been very strong late and just hinting she'll improve again here. The other pointer is her win last start against the Railway on the same card. Carrying 55kg, she ran the mile just two lengths slower than Port Lockroy who carried 53kg. At weight-for-age here, that's a 10.5kg mismatch.

Of course, times are a function of pace, and the pace was strong in the Guineas, but Storyville still ran it strongly, and her final 600m was similar to the Railway quinella.

I think it's fair to forecast Storyville improving again here and putting up a rating into the 110's, which has her strongly in the finish, especially considering that fillies and mares have a four pound allowance on the Timeform scale at weight-for-age, meaning if Attrition is running 119, Storyville only has to run 115 to be crossing the line with him.

They clearly look the two here. Attrition is the established horse and looks a real lock to run in the first few, while Storyville profiles beautifully and can make the jump. She just gets the nod. Numerian can run well at odds to round out the trifecta.

Northerly Stakes 2024
 

Tip: #16 Storyville at $4.80 with TABtouch

Saver: #2 Attrition at $5.00 with TABtouch

Roughie: #1 Numerian at $16 with TABtouch