We’re at Rosehill this week with the Winter Challenge headlining the card.
Back at Rosehill for the Winter Challenge, which did throw up the Melbourne and Caulfield Cup winners in 2022 when Gold Trip (3rd) and Durston (7th) went around.
I'd be amazed if that were the case this year, and indeed we'll pass over the feature for a bet. War Eternal looks the weights horse but is short enough as a backmarker at 2-1.
For the best of the day I'm going to head to Race 9 which is a handy little Bm88 over 1300m where Chorlton Lane comes up quite short again and can be beaten.
He won his first two this time in over 1400m with big late splits before running well below his best (some 13 pounds) last start at Caulfield. The jockey there said he didn't handle the soft 7, so conditions could be relevant here.
Currently (Thursday afternoon) a soft 7 at Rosehill, the weather looks good but whether the track dries out all that much remains to be seen. Regardless, 1300m around Rosehill with 61.5kg looks a tricky spot for him, and I'd rather be with the in-form Elson Boy.
He's been an absolute marvel over the Winter, winning four in a row including a smart win over Testator Silens over this track and trip two starts back. The streak came to an end last time when run down by the talented Contemporary over 1400m, but back to Rosehill and back 100m in trip looks perfect. He gets 6kg off Chorlton Lane who will have to run him down, which hasn't been an easy thing to do.
For the each-way play I think you can have a small, mainly place bet on Sumo Star in Race 3 which is the Midway.
He never wins but stuck on really well for a nose defeat last time, just edging out Navy Blood for second, who is second favourite here.
No doubt Navy Blood is a better horse having beaten Sumo Star comfortably at Newcastle a few starts back but Sumo Star gets in with 51kg here and should be able to roll forward in a race without much speed.
He's the same price he was last start ($26) despite going within a nose of winning and this doesn't look any harder. $6.50 a place isn't bad shopping on a tricky day.
