Racing fans can draw some long bows in their desperation to make the Spring Carnival seem a little closer than it actually is.
'Spring is just around the corner' is generally uttered once the field for the Sir John Monash Stakes drops, even though the winner of that 1100-metre Group 3 is rarely a key player in the Spring majors.
Anticipation builds further in the lead-up to the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes (1200m), this Saturday's feature at Caulfield, and the fact Apache Cat, Shoot Out and Vega Magic are among 13 Group 1 winners on the 30-year-old honour roll give it a little more credibility as a Spring precursor.
One of those Group 1 winners is the most recent of the two horses to have completed the double that Recommendation, who won the Monash Stakes by seven lengths on July 13, is shooting for this weekend.
Rubitano won the Monash/Bletchingly double in 2002 at the first two starts of a campaign that culminated with victory in the Group 1 that has been reworked and rebadged the Champions Sprint.
He is the shortest-priced Bletchingly Stakes winner at $1.60 but Recommendation looks poised to start shorter than that on Saturday, having joined Murphy's Blue Boy and Cosmic Force as the only Australian horses since 2000 to win a Group race by at least seven lengths.
The Ciaron Maher-trained four-year-old ran 116 on the Timeform scale in the Monash, the highest rating returned in that race in 21 years, and a mark bettered only by Regal Shot (2001) and Red Hope (1997), who both won their Monash Stakes in 119.
The Bletchingly generally takes more winning, as emphasised by the wins of Apache Cat (125), Vega Magic (124), Scales Of Justice (121) and Blazing Reality (121), but Recommendation likely needs only to replicate his Monash rating given none of Saturday's rivals have gone beyond 110.
Reluctant to nominate a $1.50 pop as our best bet, we'll give that honour to Lounge Bar Rubi in Race 8 given we can play him each way on what looks a challenging punting program.
The Rubick gelding encountered little luck early in the campaign and has been aggressively-placed lately for a horse still eligible for benchmark 84 events, but did beat home all-bar Munhamek in the Listed Winter Championship Final (1600m) last start.
Lounge Bar Rubi meets the horses he beat home that day – one of which is second favourite Green Fly – better at the weights in this weekend's 1600m BM100, he should hopefully take up a more prominent position from barrier five and any rain would be a plus given he is five from 10 on soft tracks.
One worth a play at a massive price is Royal Hill in Race 2.
The So You Think colt had a few little things go against him first-up at Flemington first-up but still caught the eye late when charging into fifth position, beaten just over two lengths, in the race won by Aldolfito.
Royal Hill meets Aldolfito 3kg better for that run and while barrier 11 is not ideal, it should at least ensure clear running, meaning the $41 and $9.50 available on Thursday afternoon is worth a nibble.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Best Bet: Race 8 No. 8 Lounge Bar Rubi ($5.50 and $2.05)
Best Roughie: Race 2 No. 8 Royal Hill ($41 and $9.50)
