Ryan Phelan has your tips, strategy and Quaddie for the 7 races at Cranbourne harness

Race 1

OVERVIEW: GOZO MAJOR (7) drops in grade and was a winner five runs back in a race of similar strength, with the form out of that race holding up ok since. Forget he went around last time as his task was too big after being caught wide, but his starts prior were very good in much tougher company. He’s a quick beginner and is obliged to go forward and test these.

PICKLE IT (4) is a very quick beginner but last time out had to work too hard and over raced over the middle trip, though he stuck on well considering not much went his way. He’s best served when he can lead over the short trip, and he looks to get that map here and will take running down. CHASING THE WIND (1) came through that race and improved sharply to be narrowly defeated on the line. He looks to get a soft run from the draw, so a repeat performance can see him go close. DOT BALL (5) drops to a more suitable grade here and was a winner back in May under the same ratings band. The problem is she is often map-negative and will have a lot of ground to make up over the short journey.

BACK: GOZO MAJOR (7) – 1 unit (win)

SELECTIONS: GOZO MAJOR (7), PICKLE IT (4), CHASING THE WIND (1), DOT BALL (5)

Race 2

OVERVIEW: BETTOR PUNTER (7) has had the flashing light on him his past couple and looks ready to win. Two back, in a good-quality field, he just had too much to do in a slick last half, and last time was very well backed, storming home from near last to miss by the barest margin. This is a significantly easier field he opposes here, and despite likely being map-negative from the draw, he can be too strong late.

ZION JEWEL (9) creates interest as a five-year-old first starter from an astute stable. She’s had two decent trials into this, winning the most recent, although she was entitled to considering the depth of that trial. Watch betting. TRICODE (5) has come through similar company to the top pick and has been good, albeit from better draws than he faces here. Those form lines look superior to much of the opposition. VILLAVOS (2) carried a flat tyre last time so forgive that run. She has been racing against some decent maiden company, so could be open to improvement from the favourable draw.

BACK: BETTOR PUNTER (7) – 3 units (win)

SELECTIONS: BETTOR PUNTER (7), ZION JEWEL (9), TRICODE (5), VILLAVOS (2)

Race 3

OVERVIEW: REMEMBERANCE TIME (6) is a two-year-old filly who stepped out against the older horses on debut and was most impressive, showing a very good turn of foot off a slow tempo and winning by a big margin. We see her off the front row this time, where she will be obliged to press forward as she did in her trial win prior. She looks to be trending in a positive direction to go back-to-back.

KITTY CASH (8) has a strong SP profile and apparent ability; however, she’s been accustomed to getting it wrong in the score-up this preparation. If she brings her manners, she’s open to sharp improvement. WHISKEY DAWN (7) won on debut here last time and was quite good sitting parked and proving too strong for what was a moderate field. This is a different challenge, but she should be kept safe. MEVIA (3) showed decent ability last preparation, taking on some of the better ones of her age group. She’s first-up and has trialled ok, so keep her safe.

BACK: REMEMBERANCE TIME (6) – 3.5 units (win)

SELECTIONS: REMEMBERANCE TIME (6), KITTY CASH (8), WHISKEY DAWN (7), MEVIA (3)

Race 4

OVERVIEW: ASPEN BELLE (2) makes her debut off two solid trial wins. In the most recent at Maryborough, she came off the speed and looked to do it quite comfortably while remaining clean-gaited. Considering the opposition is well exposed, she can go close based on those trial efforts if she brings the same attitude to race day.

MISS KOMMUNICATION (1) is threatening to win a race, she just can’t seem to get it done, either mixing her gait at the wrong time or simply finding one better. The soft draw and the map are in her favour. GYM QUEEN (3) has a solid SP profile based on some good runs but just can’t find the speed necessary in the last quarter to hold out her rivals. She looks the leader again here over the short trip and will look the winner at some stage. MI BOW (5) is another who has had plenty of chances to break her maiden, but she is still racing ok. She may have to do it tough from this sticky draw.

SELECTIONS: ASPEN BELLE (2), MISS KOMMUNICATION (1), GYM QUEEN (3), MI BOW (5)

Race 5

OVERVIEW: TEX GOES BANG (5) won at big odds two runs back when sitting parked in good time, then followed that up with a disappointing run last start. He’s best when he can get up on speed and grind them down, so will be swinging for a long way if he can control the tempo.

CALEDONIAN TERRA (1) is back in the draw after mixing his stride at the start three runs back but quickly regrouped to win at Melton in a similar line-up to what he meets here. His last couple have been good from back-row draws, and he can press forward and look to lead these and take catching. PRECIOUS BELLE (4) just missed last time, coming from back in the field and flashing late, albeit in a moderate last quarter. She always needs luck with her get-back racing pattern, but she may get the right pressure up top for her to come hard late and commands respect. DANCINGONSTARLIGHT (2) can be a sharp improver on her numerical form, second-up from a break here, and she didn’t have much time to wind up when fifth on resumption. She gets the right run here and can flash late.

BACK: TEX GOES BANG (5) – 1 unit (win)

SELECTIONS: TEX GOES BANG (5), CALEDONIAN TERRA (1), PRECIOUS BELLE (4), DANCINGONSTARLIGHT (2)

Race 6

OVERVIEW: KATIE LORRAINE (2) aims for a hat-trick of wins to begin her career, and the way her form is shaping up she can do just that. She beat a moderate field first-up off some good trials when she bullied her way to the lead, then she sat off the pace at Warragul and found the line strongly in good time. Back to her home track can only be advantageous.

FROSTY DROP (4) is chasing consecutive wins at this track. She was able to lead all the way from the pole over the middle distance, and now back to the mile will be stamped urgent to look for the pegs again. If she finds the top, she will take some catching. BELLA LOUISE (1) drew the same gate last time out and was solid, going down narrowly in good time. If the top two overcook things it will be to her benefit. ROCKY PACIFIC (6) is a former Kiwi having his first start under race conditions here, but his trials have been solid against some talented types. He’s a betting watch in a decent line-up.

BACK: KATIE LORRAINE (2) – 1.5 units (win)

SELECTIONS: KATIE LORRAINE (2), FROSTY DROP (4), BELLA LOUISE (1), ROCKY PACIFIC (6)

Race 7

OVERVIEW: TOPHUT JOHNY (5) returns to a suitable grade here, like when he was able to win five runs back at this track when able to lead. He’s had no luck with barrier draws to get into the race since, so expect sharp improvement here.

FINAL BOW (3) is the stablemate and was sent out favourite last time when able to lead, and in fairness she had her chance. This does look suitable, so she has claims again with the state’s top driver aboard. COLORADO GIRL (4) will find this race more to her liking, although she may be forced to race with cover with plenty of speed drawn inside her. She’s capable of improvement. BLAZIN HEAVEN (7) is fitter now third-up, will most likely be map-negative, but there’s plenty of speed to maybe set up the final quarter she needs.

SELECTIONS: TOPHUT JOHNY (5), FINAL BOW (3), COLORADO GIRL (4), BLAZIN HEAVEN (7)

10-UNIT GAME PLAN

• R1 #7 GOZO MAJOR – 1 unit (win)
• R2 #7 BETTOR PUNTER – 3 units (win)
• R3 #6 REMEMBERANCE TIME – 3.5 units (win)
• R5 #5 TEX GOES BANG – 1 unit (win)
• R6 #2 KATIE LORRAINE – 1.5 units (win)

EARLY QUADDIE

1,4,5,7/7,9/6,8/1,2,3,4,5

QUADDIE

1,2,3/1,2,4,5/1,2,4,6/3,4,5

A betting unit is typically a percentage of the total bankroll or the amount of money you are willing to risk on a particular bet – for example 1 unit is 10% of your bankroll, therefore a $100 bankroll 1 unit equals $10

Original article here!

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