Saturday best bets from Luke & Brown (15/08)

By SENTrack

Cam Luke & Campbell Brown have your Saturday sorted on Trackside.

The lads have taken a close look at Caulfield & Rosehill in a bid to find the family some winners.

See their best bets below:👇

Cam Luke

CAULFIELD

Race 1 | 12. Savoyard

The gate and the speed map will make it pretty hard for this bloke but I think he is the best horse in the race. His win on debut was huge and is next run before being tipped out was equal to it. Educated is the one to beat as will be closer to speed but if they push up a bit it will help Savoyard. Only have a little bet but he is the progressive horse of the race and make sure you black book him for his next runs when he gets to 1400.

Race 3 | 3. Butternut Princess (each-way)

Almost the same as R1, this girl will get back but loves getting to 1400m second up. The resuming run was really good and the form has stacked up a bunch. She might be aided a little by drier tracks in the future but she is no duffer in the wet. Claim is handy with Ryan Houston taking 2kgs off to have her decently weighted. Only have a small each-way play as I am concerned about the speed in the race as it seems only moderate and she will need it quicker but she will run home really well. At a minimum black book her for next start because her best is well and truly up to this level.

Race 5 | 3. Hard Kick

Getting a price today to find out if he is actually the horse that belted a good field on debut. Tongue tie on makes me think the stable might have known what went amiss. First time non straight wont hurt him and neither will the softish track. He is nicely drawn and Damian Lane will be able to stalk the hot pace (Closer To Free/Myhro's Ruler are both drawn wide so it will be on early). I think we are more inclined to see the horse who we thought he was and will bounce back her in a big way.

Race 6 | 5. Natural Fling

I think she is a very talented filly! She already won here and then her Gold Coast run was great behind a really smart winner (The Next Episode). She has trailed up well and after her Goldy run I assume she spent time in QLD which has worked wonders for many a star horse in recent times. Gets 3kg off the Star Kiwi horse (Lara Antipova) who won a Group 1 over there but she is drawn sticky while Damian Lane will make his own luck on speed. She looks to have matured and ready to rip in a really good race.

Race 7 | 2. Evaporate

Was huge in a Group 1 resuming in the autumn this track and distance and I expect a huge run again today. Blake Shinn back on and he always rides him well. Soft track to his approval and he is a Group 1 door knocker. He can find bad luck but hoping that the wide gate will be a blessing later in the day like it has been recently here. It's a very open race but as always this bloke will give himself a chance and go very close.

Race 9 | 3. Light Infantry Man

Same kick off point as the autumn when he won nicely. Same weight after the claim and a better gate. Hasn’t been asked to do too much in his two trials but he is a veteran now and comes to hand quickly come race day. Soft track works and I suspect Jabez Johnstone will let him roll forward close to the speed. Rarely runs a bad race and traditionally they are Group 1's. If he is anywhere near wound up, he is better than these.

ROSEHILL

Race 3 | 14. Valedor

Having a bet in a Highway on a horse who is back from a mile is something I would never do... but! This horse just oozes class. Should be undefeated. The draw is lovely to stalk speed of which will be plentiful and helpful. JMac goes on and the good track works for him to extend out best. It's my smallest bet of the day but he is well weighted and classier than these, albeit it's a decent Highway.

Race 6 | 12. Formal (each-way)

FORGOT this bloke went around last time. Should have nearly won. He is drawn lovely and many of the favoured runners aren't. He loves the good track and stays at the 1100m which is his sweet spot. Got a smidge more weight today without the claim but that won't hurt him. If he gets luck he is up to this to his eyeballs and will go very close to winning. The $17 I got on the Sportsbet Feed was silly and expect him to jump around $5.

Race 8 | 3. Central Europe (Sydney BEST)

This guy oozes class and his first two runs were great. He looks bigger and stronger and will relish the speed here where he can sit off it and pounce late. With some luck he wins on debut and the winner that day went on to win a Group 1. The 1100m will be a little short of his best but his best is winning Group 1's this prep (back him in the Golden Rose by following Cam Luke on the Sportsbet Feed). Chilly Girl is the danger and will ensure some speed. She was brilliant in her win on debut and will take catching but Central Europe will. Best of the day in Sydney.

Race 9 | 1. Attica

Best horse in the race. Some might think his autumn was flat and in some aspects it was but they were races far superior to this. Has trialled up really well and has sat on speed so even with a tricky gate I expect him closer to the front here. Has been gelded so hopefully that has his mindset more on us making cash than him looking at the fillies. The fave is a BM78 winner and although a nice horse, Attica is a genuine Group 1 winner. He is at his best on good tracks and the 1400m kick off works. This is a perfect time to back the best horse in the race and hope he gets luck because if he does he'll go boom!

Campbell Brown

ROSEHILL

Race 8 | 3. Central Europe

In for a huge prep. Beaten a pimple on debut by Campione D'Italia who then went on to run well in the Slipper and won the Inglis Sires. Good third in the Pago Pago before a spell. Trialled up well. Could be anything and is my big watch over the spring.

Race 9 | 1. Attica

Returns a gelding. Draw means he will get back but first up last prep beaten 2L Ninja and Napoleonic, then placed G1 places behind Sheza Alibi and Autumn Boy, before running into Autumn Glow and Gringotts. There is nowhere near that level of talent here. Trailled well enough to fire first up.