Horse Racing

1 hour ago

Saturday best bets from Luke & Taggart (24/10)

By SENTrack

Cam Luke & David Taggart have your Saturday sorted on Trackside.

The lads have taken a close look at Flemington & Randwick in a bid to find the family some winners.

See their best bets below:👇

Cam Luke

FLEMINGTON

Race 1 | 11. Bred 'Em All

This is his toughest test but his win fresh with a huge weight is enough to suggest he's come back really well. He does not want a heavy track, anything better and this bloke goes whoosh. He's 1000 metre specialist, he's extremely well weighted and even though he's never been down the Flemington straight before he seems tractable enough to be able to enjoy it. Ice Kool is too short in the market for me as he does have some quirks and I don't love that down the straight but he does have a bunch of speed and talent. Point and Shoot has trialled well and will be running home late but I think the 1000 is too short for his best.

Race 2 | 2. Buggsy

Blinkers go on which is a positive and he is screaming to get back to the 1200. Has plenty of straight experience. His run in the last couple have been against the best 3yo sprinters and he was ok (especially two back). This is easier and I'm not as sold the heavy track was his jam last start. Craig Williams sticks with him which is a plus and a beat below the best is where he sits and he finds that race here with the perfect setup.

Race 3 | 1. Lepolo (each-way)

Third time straight I'm backing this bloke but there have been genuine excuses. Two back the track was just too heavy and last week they went too slow and he had no chance to get involved in the fight. Spacious Flemington should be his absolute favourite and on the quick backup, on a good track, Harry Coffey should just let him roll forward and let him grind it out. It's his last chance in my book but I like him too much as a horse to say he can't win, he's well over the odds and a perfect each way play here today.

Race 4 | 3. Angels Fury

This filly is full of talent and has trialled up like a superstar. Her debut run went wrong in about 15 different reasons but her two wins since then have been brilliant. She has clearly come back even more developed and even though it's their first time down the straight I don't expect her to have any issues. The inside gates haven't always been the best place down the straight but I'm going to back her talent to overcome that and I like her. Very Keen!

Race 5 | 8. Extragalactic

This mare just keeps running well in Group 1 races without winning. This isn't technically a Group 1 race but it's a really good field headlined by Jigsaw. They will go fast but I think JMac can slide on the back of Mazu and allow him to take him into the race. This is a really good race but I think that her fitness fourth up, 1200 down the straight and her ability to get into the middle of the track and rattle home will be the difference late. Keen!

Race 6 | 10. Enxuto (each-way)

This bloke is having a really good prep and hits his preferred mile third up where he has won before. I backed him last start and he just got too far back off a slow tempo where it was hard to make ground late but he did a pretty good job. I'm a little worried about the pace againe here as Surfin' Bird and Astral Flame should lead but I need another to go forward and inject some speed in. He loves a good track and if they go quick he will be the benefactor. If they do go slow, Blake Shinn can take a risk and slide forward and if he gets cover, he can sprint but that is a big risk from that gate. He is in decent from and again today a great each way play!

Race 7 | 18. Kizlyar

These internationals are always intriguing but I do think this year's lot are better than our locals and this bloke sits perfectly in that realm. No major rain was a win, he is drawn perfectly to slide forward and control the race and he will enjoy Flemington and the space that it gives. He's win at 4000m was big where he beat Defiantly the Melb Cup fave but so was his 2800 metre run right before he came here! I think he is decently weighted and if he gets into that groove early, I don’t think they will run him down. He needs to win here to make the Melbourne Cup so he will be at full flight compared to a couple others. It's a really open good race but I think this bloke will be too classy and tough late. I really like him and am betting accordingly.

Race 8 | 3. Sir Delius (win) & 12. Blind Raise (each-way)

An historic 2026 Cox plate for the first time we see it not at Moonee Valley and to add to the intrigue it's one of the best open Cox Plate's I can recall. There are legitimately eight horses who could win Australia's best race and that is so exciting. I've had two bets in the race; one of them on the horse who I think will win and the other who has been a future bet for a while who will run really well.

I think Sir Delius is the horse to beat today. I know people have questioned the form he is in but this is exactly how he was in the autumn and his second 2000 metre run he went bang. Gai Waterhouse has never won a Cox Plate and I think the last 12 months has been all about this moment for this bloke. There will be a huge amount of speed in the race as there always is but I think Craig Williams can allow this horse to get into a groove and sit on the back of Blind Raise about fourth or fifth. He was a bulldog last spring when in a dogfight and today will be that and I think it will be his Cox Plate.

Blind Raise is the 3yo who I have backed for a little while and I was really impressed with him in the Guineas. He did the work early and fought on late when beaten. He screams 2000m. He won't be a close to the lead as normal but he will be third or fourth following Light Infantry Man and Land Legend over as they take up the speed. He is a tough bugger and deserves his shot. I'd be pleasantly surprised financially if he won and if the race sets up like I expect, he will be in the finish and one of a number of chances. At $15 he is a great each way play!

Race 9 | 1. Too Darn Discreet

Last time this girl ran 2000 metres on this track she beat Land Legend. She loves the distance and her run in the Toorak from back in the field was really good. She won't go that far back today drawn a little bit better so hopefully with some speed (Sunset Park) she can find some cover midfield. She flies fourth up, good track no issue and I think she gets the great set up. Even with the weight she is the classiest 2000m horse in the race and I think will end the day in a great way! Keen!

RANDWICK

Race 1 | 6. Royal Accord

Don't go overboard here being almost full of first timers but this bloke oozes class and has trialled up a treat twice. He'll lob perfectly from that gate and maps to perfection. He hit the line really well in both of those trials and I expect him to be strong here late. Track conditions are always a guess but handled both soft and firm in preparation. Rosarito looked improved in second trial and is the danger but she will get back from that gate and will need to spot Royal Accord a start and that will be the difference.

Race 2 | 7. Ocean Tsunami

If it wasn't for the gate I would have had a dip here but with Zac Lloyd on I still think this girl will be very hard to top! Belted them two back and was pretty good last start after a sizeable break between runs. First time at Randwick but I'll guess that the 1600 work here! Any rain won't hurt at all and even though this is a little tougher than a couple of those recent races, she'll be improved again and with any luck from the gate (I'd suggest she wall go fwd) and be very hard to toss!

Race 3 | 2. Mailata (each-way)

This is the most open race of the day and it’s a really decent Midway. If you feel the need to have a little play I think this bloke ticks some boxes at a price. Was pretty decent first up over 1200, now steps up to 1400 which works. Draws really well and will have a nice run behind the speed (Beau Bandit will go fast) and that works for this bloke. Little rain won't hurt either. Again, not keen to have any major splash but this bloke feels over the odds at $20 and a nice each way play!

Race 4 | 5. Ciaron's Star

She was so good resuming behind Blue Door and she's had a little tick over trial since. Drawn lovely to speed map well and in the small field she won't be far off them. She seems more ready for the 1200 now than previously attempted. Little rain won't cause and issue and she is simply the best horse in this race. Very keen!

Race 5 | 2. Central Europe

Surely it's time for this bloke to stand up and deliver in a much easier race than what he has been in this prep. He's running the Guineas behind two horses in the Cox plate was really good. His second start at the 1600 is an advantage and he's drawn to be perfectly poised in run. Track conditions won't hurt regardless of rain. The fave (Why So Hard) is clearly talented and will love 1600-2000 at some point but 1200 up to the mile is a concern and I think Central Europe will out-tough him late. Time for the big boy to break the maiden in an easier race than his normal competitors. Very Keen!

Race 6 | 1. Lindermann (win) & 8. Panova (each-way)

Not a race I'm really keen to get too involved in but I expect Lindermann to be super hard to beat. He will dictate this race and run them into the ground which is something he failed to do last start so back a little in trip to the 1800 works in his favour. I think Nash Rawiller would have liked his time again last start and pushed a little earlier rather than a sprint home. I'd say he will be rolling in front and almost impossible to catch.

I think Panova is a great each-way play (especially if it stays dry). She was actually good late in the Toorak (albeit last) and up to 1800 works here! I expect Lindermann to drag some sprint out of his main challengers but I think this will help her run home and sneak a place. She is overs at $21 and at minimum a great place bet at $4!

Race 7 | 8. Global Goal

Here is my best of the day as she finally gets to the 2000 that I think will suit her both this spring and beyond. Even when she won the Flight she hit that little flat spot and then when she flattened out she savaged the line and that makes me think 2000 metres right up her alley. What will help her even more is a quicker speed today and I think she gets that. She's drawn nicely the stalk the speed and get cover. Stormy Marco is the danger (I've backed him twice this prep) but his pattern hurts him time and time again. In saying that up to 2000 will aid him in a big way with a little luck he will be right up to this to his eyeballs but I think Global Goal is the classiest horse in the race and she is my best of the day!!

Race 8 | 4. Super Smink

Any chance this horse will ever draw a gate? In saying that she'll go back and the speed will be on so she will get a chance. She was really good and about to launch first up and she ran into three roadblocks would have finished top four or five easily and the horses that did are in the market here (Gerrigong/Arabian Rose). She goes really well second up and handles both good and soft. 1400 works and she is way over the odds at $51. Lazzura I would have backed but I can't take $3 from that sticky gate and speed map. She is classy but I can see Super Smink running a huge race and would rather take the value.

Race 9 | 7. Welcometotheshow

Not a race I'm really keen to dive into with a number of chances but this bloke was brilliant at Flemington and you could argue just as good last start in a Group 1 where he only just got beat. The 1500 metres is right in his wheelhouse, good or even a bit of rain makes no difference and he's perfectly drawn to sit right on the back of the speed. As I said open race and no major bet but this bloke deserves credit for how well he ran last time and I expect another bold showing.

Race 10 | 2. Robusto

Forget that first I run where he was a legit chance to win. The good news is he goes really well second up and he's drawn just as well to have the perfect speed map. He had trialled up well prior to that run, so he has come back really well. The track conditions will work for him even with a little bit of rain, the 1600 metres is well within his wheelhouse, he enjoys Randiwck and even though it's an open race again I think he should have won last start and he'd be favourite here if he did and I expect him to run really well!

David Taggart

FLEMINGTON

Race 6 | 12. Surfin' Bird

Gave nothing else a chance in a dominant win last start. Hits this third up where she’s undefeated in two starts and this is her pet distance looking to go five from five over the mile. Will control the race and is the one they have to beat.

Race 9 | 1. Too Darn Discreet

Has been in good form in better races to this and will appreciate stepping up to this trip where she’s undefeated in three runs. Soft track suits and she’s going to be very hard to beat if she gets the right run. Is three from three fourth up also.

RANDWICK

Race 4 | 5. Ciaron's Star

Was no match for the talented Blue Door first up beaten 2.2L. Went back to the trials for a solid win and she won second up last prep. Draws perfect and suited to the step up to 1200m, she’s the one they have to beat.

Race 9 | 7. Welcometotheshow

Was one of the runs of the race when third in the Toorak. Was the only horse to hang on up on the speed after sitting in the one one hitting the front only to be run down in the shadows. Draws perfect and I’d expect Ashley Morgan to give him a peach.

Race 10 | 1. Estadio Mestalla

Has been knocking on the door in harder races to this of late. Draws perfect for Nash and I wouldn’t expect him to get back out his ground like he has been. Has to carry weight but is the best horse in the race, he has placed four of five fourth up without winning. Back Nash win cash.