Gator's Game Plan: Gately's best for Melbourne Cup Day (03/11)

By David Gately

David Gately has provided his best bets for Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington on Tuesday.

See Gator's Game Plan below:

BET OF THE DAY

FLEMINGTON - Race 3 No.2 - STAR OF MACEDON - Wide / Too good fresh then lost ground turn Caulfield and doubt relished that track, plus, had bias against, he ran home well. Quickly to 1800m. Gets to Flemington which will suit.

VALUE BET OF THE DAY

FLEMINGTON - Race 4 No.4 - PEYTON - Slow out in Roman Consul then ran home well behind smart Satono Glow. Has been on the heels of G1 Coolmore quinella, The Next Episode/ St Gotthard. Like the draw. Value runner $9?

ROUGHIE BET OF THE DAY

FLEMINGTON - Race 9 No.14 - MILOS FILOS - Far too good 2nd-up. Won well her one go 1400m and has run very well to Wise Inlaw who won Cresick Stks here beating Chains Of Love who just beat key rival So You Pence at Randwick. No moral but cannot believe she is $51 here.

Melbourne Cup Analysis

Flemington - Race 7 - G1 MELBOURNE CUP - 3200m

1: 2 - TRUSTYOURINSTINCTS - First Oz start. Lands here off a good 4th in G1 Irish St Leger behind 3 x world class horses (he thrashed 5th) including Jan Brueghel who was declared "unbeatable" by his stable in this race before being scratched. His G2 win prior he beat Al Riffa who started fave in this race last year. Proven in big fields and quickens like a good horse.

2: 20 - POINT OF LAW - Looked terrific winning the Geelong Cup at his first run in Australia and the race rated similarly to all three horses who have done the Geelong Cup/ Melb Cup double. He beat Small Fry who was not far off Defiantly and Hopewell Rock when they clashed. Can he win this at just start six given he is very much still learning his craft? Goes in everything for mine!

3: 24 - SHOCKLETZ - Lovely late work Caulfield steaming home under light ride then again found line super back in trip last week. In very light here and has great depths of endurance to her… Like her Saint George form given his run in Cox Plate too. Think she will be very strong at 3200m. Can win.

4: 12 - HOPEWELL ROCK - First Oz start. Just missed at York. 3rd-Opportunity was just off Wine Dark Sea prior and the first 3 there gapped 4th. Beat Small Fry prior giving him 4.5kg, he then just chased Point Of Law here in Geelong Cup.

5: 4 - MIDDLE EARTH - Just warming up nicely at the end of the G1 Cox Plate and looks to be going as well if not better than last year when a very good third this race. He goes in.

6: 1 - SONS AND LOVERS - First Oz start. Good with big weight beating home James J Braddock latest. 57.5kg no spoil but in OK relative weights. Maps for good trail from the gate. Goes in for sure.

7: 8 - WINE DARK SEA - Just didn't seem to get around that Caulfield track at all well at his Oz debut. Had won 3 of his previous 4 and that Dubai Honour form very easy to like relative to our WFA stars here in Oz. Will he run a strong 3200m? We will soon know.

8: 18 - JAMES J BRADDOCK - First Oz start. Only had one run since gelding Op. He worked home well and wasn’t far off Sons And Lovers. Has 10 x ratings points on Point Of Law and only .5kg more than him.

9: 6 - ENFJAAR - Had chance but solid in Caulfield Cup. Beat Opportunity before rocking here which clearly ties in with many… The 3200m is the question mark.

10: 10 - GOODIE TWO SHOES - Super in this race last year. Up 3.5kg but did beat Santorini Star two-back, that horse then chased one-time fave for this, Defiantly.

11: 22 - MR MONACO - Covered ground and good in MV Cup. Has weight swing on Juja Kiko. Forgive his miss at 3200m when had respiratory issue.

12: 20 - JUJA KIBO - Flying and very good win in MV Cup given moderate tempo. Rain a bonus. Should stay no worries… Wish he had 2-3kg less is all.

13: 16 - SO YOU ARE - So tough and genuine.. Ha great will to win and should stay all day… Does he have 2-3kg too much also?

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