Group 1 Gurus: Who to back in the Melbourne Cup & why?

By SENTrack & RSN

Here we are! The biggest day on the Australian racing calendar – Melbourne Cup Day!

It’s the race that stops a nation, and we have done the work to try and find you a winner in the great race.

Run on the first Tuesday of November at Flemington Racecourse, the prestigious handicap was first run in 1861 and has since become one of the world’s feature races.

Competing across 3200m, the Group 1 is worth $10 million, and was won by Half Yours last year (2025), followed by Knight’s Choice (2024), Without A Fight (2023), Gold Trip (2022), and Verry Elleegant (2021).

As usual, this year’s edition of the Melbourne Cup is wide-open. Geelong Cup winner Point Of Law is currently favourite for the handicap, but any horse can claim triumph!

Check out our tips and predictions for the Melbourne Cup below!

Melbourne Cup

Winner: TRUSTYOURINSTINCT

Top 4: Trustyourinstinct | Juja Kibo | Goodie Two Shoes | Point Of Law

Why: It’s the hardest race of the year to find a winner, but that’s what we love it for!

I like the international form heading into this race and will be tracking some Joseph O’Brien-trained gallopers.

I’ve got Trustyourinstinct on top. O’Brein has trained two Cup winners before, and he could very well make it three here. The gelding has won at the distance previously, and in his last start, hit the line well across 2816m in Ireland, losing to Scandinavia – the former Melbourne Cup favourite. Also, Australia’s best jockey, James McDonald, is in the mount, big tick! Additionally, race caller Matt Hill gave this horse a big push on RSN’s Correct Weight. The 57kg and barrier 18 is the query for him though.

Juja Kibo looks a good thing. Has everything going for it here based off the past decade of Melbourne Cup statistics. It’s last two races were victories across 2400m and 2500m. Could very well win.

The King’s former horse, Point Of Law, will also be around the mark. Is the current favourite, and rightfully so. Now trained by Ciaron Maher, the stallion impressively won the Geelong Cup (2400m), proving that he should run a mighty race in the Melbourne Cup. Weighted perfectly as well. Big chance.

Goodie Two Shoes is at a lovely price. Another O’Brein-trained international and finished second in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Has raced three times at the distance with a record of 1-1-1. Must be respected.

Connor Scanlon

Winner: SHOCKLETZ

Top 4: Shockletz | Hopewell Rock | Middle Earth | Point of Law

Why: Shockletz is rightfully the biggest chance of the Australian trained stayers - carries a very nice weight and has had the perfect lead up, she is my top selection.

Hopewell Rock is my pick of the imports, I think to win the Cup you must stay the distance and have a turn of foot that can ignite your race, sounds obvious but this Gelding has them both.

Maher has labelled Middle Earth his best Cup chance for months, and he has a way getting his stars up for grand final day. He ran 3rd in this race last year, the weight is what leans me towards a place rather than a win here. Will run well.

Point of Law is definitely one to include in your exotics, again seems obvious, but I think he is well under the odds, will run well but as the favourite, not for me.

Jasper Cormick