Tips and race by race preview by Nick Berney for Thursday's Kembla Grange meeting. Selections based on a soft track. Monitor for bias/pattern.
Race 1 - 12:10PM JOIN THE WARRA CLUB TODAY MAIDEN PLATE (1600 METRES)
Keen on 6. Like Lukey, who profiles well for this assignment, and all key indicators suggest, she is ready to peak fourth-up. The three-year-olds last two starts have had sectional merit, and she now has the platform to step out to 1600m, which looks ideal. Further, getting back onto a bigger track suits, and she gets in well at the weights under the conditions with the claim. The Kris Lees galloper brings the best last-start figure, and her closing speed is superior to her rivals.
Dangers: 10. Shine Like It Does was solid in the market first-up and was honest in defeat after chasing a very fast tempo. She can roll forward here, control the speed and take some catching. 7. On The Decs comes through the same race, and she wasn't suited to the high-pressure event first-up. She can find a much more suitable rhythm here, and 1600m is a plus. 3. Highland Eightgee is on the quick backup and will roll forward.
How to play it: Like Lukey WIN ($2.25 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 2 - 12:45PM COLOURITE PAINTING 2YO MAIDEN PLATE (1000 METRES)
Expecting sharp improvement from 1. Blue Illusion, who had excuses first-up and the late market trade suggested he would benefit from the run. The Godolphin galloper was caught out on a limb throughout, albeit one turn, but he sprinted hard, clocking the meeting's fastest 400m-200m split before peaking on his run. He brings strong form lines, and all key indicators suggest he can only step. Additionally, he maps to be smothered away, conserving his energy, and with even luck, he can run over the top of his rivals.
Dangers: Nothing went right for 5. Vinniro who resumed as a gelding at Randwick 12 days ago. He wasn't suited to the race shape and was caught wide, but to his credit, he never shirked his task to the line. The Peter & Paul Snowden runner draws gate one here and profiles well. Debutante 10. Island Dec went through the line full of energy in a recent heat and kicks off her career at her home track. Waterhouse & Bott produce another two-year-old in 8. Girls Weekend, and although she will improve with time, she is wound up to run well here.
How to play it: Blue Illusion WIN ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 3 - 1:20PM BECOME AN ITC MEMBER TODAY CLASS 1 HCP (1000 METRES)
Lightly raced improver 2. Ballet D'Esprit resumes off a 132-day break and has a strong 1000m profile. The Michael Freedman galloper showed key attributes in her first campaign and always indicated that she would return improved. She had had two trials leading into this, giving her a solid platform, and she has multiple winning figures for this event. Tim Clark rides for the first time, and expect her to roll forward, sprint, and be hard to catch.
Dangers: 6. Lady Extreme is another runner resuming from a spell, and she went to the line not extended in a recent heat at Hawkesbury. Her first-up effort last campaign was full of merit when winning at Gosford and she pricked her ears on the line with the clock backing up her performance. 1. Zaragoza, now trained by Robert & Luke Price, looks ready to sprint fresh and 9. Narrative brings a fitness edge.
How to play it: Ballet D'esprit WIN ($2.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 4 - 1:55PM PERONI SUPER 4YO&UP MAIDEN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
1. Euromaster resumed at Wyong a fortnight ago without an official public barrier trial and started a rock-solid favourite. The gelding was brave in defeat after being caught three-wide out on a limb throughout in a genuine tempo, and to his credit, he tried hard to the line to finish third. Further, that race rated highly relative to the day, and he can only come on from that effort. Group 1 winning hoop Zac Lloyd takes over the riding duties and back onto drying surface suits.
Dangers: 6. Cohesive will be suited over more ground, but she represents value and resumes here off a 169-day break. The four-year-old has had two trials, and if they overdo it up front, she has the closing speed to come over the top of them late. 5. Call Me Grouchy comes through the same race as Euromaster and receives a significant 6kg swing on that runner. She maps well and is a major player. Add 9. Criminal Art, who is a consistent enough type and is coming through a fast-time race.
How to play it: Euromaster WIN ($2.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 5 - 2:35PM CARLTON DRY MID 3.5 3YO MAIDEN HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
Like 4. Recruiter whose debut run had merit in a high-rating race that has since produced three subsequent winners. The gelding had to make his run through the inferior ground but built through his gears well and just missed in a tight finish to secure a placing. He only had the one trail leading into that and will undoubtedly have improved from a fitness/race experience perspective. In addition, the rise to 1200m second-up is ideal, allowing him to find a rhythm that enhances his key asset of acceleration.
Dangers: 5. Fugitiva raced well last campaign, and she resumes here off a 144-day spell. Her first-up run last prep was full of merit at this track/distance, and repeating that effort can put her in the finish. 10. Tropea will benefit sharply with the blinkers going on, and the bigger track is ideal. She is a knockout chance. Debutant 2. Captain Eagle has been well-backed in early markets and is wound right up for this. He has trialled well and gets the key booking of Kerrin McEvoy from a soft draw. Add 1. Invade And Conquer to wider exotics.
How to play it: Recruiter WIN ($3.40 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 6 - 3:10PM HAPPY BIRTHDAY DAMIEN O'SHEA BM 64 HCP (1500 METRES)
3. Autunno was a flashing light run first-up at this track, but the clock backed up his visual late strength. The gelding drifted back to last from a wide draw, and although run to suit, he had too much to do in the big field but clocked the meeting quickest final 200m split. Further, that race's overall time had merit, and it rated well against the day. He receives a significant barrier change, and a rise in trip will allow him to settle much closer. Additionally, the base figure he has come in on suggests he has gone to a new level, and any improvement will make him hard to hold out.
Dangers: 4. Fire Tribe hasn't been suited around the tight-turning Canterbury track his past two starts and gets a much more positive setup here. The three-year-old will appreciate getting onto a drier surface and is looking for more ground. 5. Vomo Island can roll forward, dictate and is now at optimal fitness. Must include last start winner 7. Monte Maximus returns to his home track, and Tommy Berry rides.
How to play it: Autunno WIN ($3.80 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 7 - 3:45PM TATAMA PTY LTD F&M BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
3. Spicy Hotpot is ready to bounce back into the winner's stall after a brave effort last start at this track. The mare chased a fast tempo throughout, was produced early in the straight and to her credit, she tried hard to the line to hold onto third. She rises to the 1500m for the first time, but she has a strong platform and draws well. Further, she has multiple winning ratings and brings solid form lines to this event relative to her rivals.
Dangers: 2. Justela is 33 days between runs but has raced consistently all preparation, and she can roll forward from the awkward draw. 1. Hinchinjive drops in grade, and her run had merit after having the race shape against. She gets a favourable setup here, and the drying surface suits. Add 10. Crystal Waters, who is rock-hard fit, races at her home track and gets in well after the claim.
How to play it: Spicy Hotpot WIN ($3.60 TAB Fixed Odds).
Race 8 - 4:25PM NIMAKA PTY LTD BENCHMARK 64 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
12. There There drops sharply in grade here, and she arguably should've won last start at Canterbury. The four-year-old sprinted the meeting's fastest 600m-200m split, looked to burst through a gap but was blocked for a run and went to the line untested over the final 150m. She draws awkwardly again, but she is going better than the form guide reads and is a versatile mare.
Dangers: 3. All Machiavellian may be looking for more ground now, but he savaged the line to score at this track/distance last start and ran slick time. He rises in weight but draws to be smothered away, and he can run over the top of his rivals again. 17. Headstock comes through the same race and gets a weight swing on that horse with the addition of Tommy Berry. 15. Battle Of Vienna has had excuses his past two starts and 8. Cool Lad should've finished closer last start at Warwick Farm.
How to play it: There There WIN ($7.00 TAB Fixed Odds).
Best Bet: Race 1 # 6 - Like Lukey
Next Best: Race 5 # 4 - Recruiter
Best Value: Race 8 # 12 - There There
