The G2 Avondale Guineas looked a cracker on paper and a surefire settler of the 3yo pecking order with the G1 NZ Derby just two weeks away. The race today however has thrown up more questions than it should have answered and even saw the Derby favourite for months in Volkstok’n’barrell be replaced at the head of the markets. Mongolian Khan, an Australian bred 3yo, became favourite after his easy win but expect to see the rally for the Volkstok'n’barrell fan club as he will certainly be the sentimental favourite for Team Logan. It was a slow run race with 2:13.08 very pedestrian and two to three seconds inferior to most recent runnings of this race. Factor in then the rail was out an absurd 7.5m that creates manmade bias at Ellerslie and then you get the form becoming not quite trustable. The extra 300m in two weeks for the Derby here plus the rail will be true seems a strange stepping stone as the track cannot be more different with such a return to normalcy. Mongolian Khan was midfield the outer early but the moment the usual stamina race crawl started at Ellerslie his rider Opie Bosson showed the confidence in his mount and shot around to lead at the halfway mark. He was cruising from then on and had his rivals on toast at the 200m. Up until today he and Volkstok’n’barrell were unbeaten at Ellerslie but now just one will take that mantle into the Derby. Mongolian Khan seems bulletproof as he can swim too if some rain arrived and is able to lead or take a sit plus he keeps going and then add in he drops the bit and relaxes immediately. Prima ran a big race for second and must surely now be the best maiden in New Zealand at the moment after Group placings in his last two outings. He can race in or near the lead and keep going so the 2015 G1 NZ Derby is going to have no shortage of on pacers. Volkstok’n’barrell lost no admirers except perhaps the bettors that backed it today as once restrained to the back he had zero chance of winning. The fact he relaxed out the back and then ran home hard to grab third augurs well for the Derby and the most certain thing is you can bet he will not be settled this far back again in a fortnight. It is still hard to understand why he lost his favouritism as his stable got the questions answered they wanted such as could settle and would find the line at middle distance. He too is no weather risk so the barrier draw now becomes paramount though with a 500m run to the first turn it should give every rider ample time to get over should they have a poor gate. Midnitemagicman is a stablemate of Volkstok’n’barrell and could play a key role for each other in the Derby so his fourth after racing close was important today. It showed another string too his bow and dreams of a Derby quinella are not out of the question as he stuck well today the run home. McQueen ran another sound race and he has that turn of foot that can pinch a Derby if ridden a tad quieter before being unleashed. Sound Proposition was an eyecatcher for sixth and his last 50m was superb plus hanging out the run home never helped either. The jockey change to Danielle Johnson for the Derby will help tactically. Some bubbles burst today such as Rockfast is not a stayer and Gaultier may have fluked his G1 Levin Classic as a maiden having been gelded a few weeks prior. Margin Trader was colossal in only being beaten five and a half lengths after being wide and working throughout so his stamina is not in doubt. He may however be exhausted after such a horror overland outing and still will not settle in his races. The rest looked dubious stayers bar perhaps J’Walke that looks like he would run 3200m now. As a legitimate tempo comparison the race that followed this was a Ratings65 and won easily by the 4yo Imperial Hawk in 2:10.91 or just over twelve lengths superior. The reason this is vital is because the second and third finishers in the race are 3yo Derby aspirants in Gifted Lad and Kaharau. They both ran faster time than anything in the G2 Avondale Guineas plus Gifted Lad came from second last near the home turn with massive strides down the outer. He is a big son of Zabeel so will adore the 2400m. Kaharau raced fifth or sixth and strode into contention halfway up the run home so dismiss him at your peril too. The only runner we did not see today at Ellerslie that could win the Derby is the big filly Vavasour as she can race in or near the lead and with the sex allowance can apply some hurt to the lads in the blue riband event.