Horse Racing

53 minutes ago

Saturday best bets from Luke, Taggart & Brown (03/10)

By SENTrack

Cam Luke, David Taggart & Campbell Brown have your Saturday sorted on Trackside.

The lads have taken a close look at Flemington & Randwick in a bid to find the family some winners.

See their best bets below:👇

Cam Luke

FLEMINGTON

Race 1 | 1. Ankaa

Don't be diving too much into this race with all untried two year olds and the heavy track makes it even harder but this bloke is probably the classiest of them based on his trial. He handled the straight OK, he sat on the back of the speed and when he was asked he went well. No major bet but out of Anamoe he looks a treat and if he handles race day being a colt on debut he will run well.

Race 2 | 13. Esmahli

Went through his grades really well last prep and now gets an opportunity after a really good first up run (gelded) to step up to a much more suitable 1200m. Has one on the heavy track before and you would assume based on recent history being drawn wide will help in the best part of the Flemington straight. Again not a race I am keen to have a mjor bet but this bloke will run well.

Race 3 | 2. Lepolo

First major bet of the day on a horse who just seems like he will handle the heavy but more importantly love Flemington. He's a big lanky bloke who oozes class and getting to the 1800 metres here is a big tick. Had a little tick over trial in between which will help the fitness. He was a little sluggish out the gates in that win last time out but I do expect if he jumps cleaner he'll be a little closer to the front than the back. Either way don't panic as he will flatten out nicely in room and continue on his winning ways!

Race 4 | 9. Beautiful You (each-way)

Big step up in grade here but has been handling races easy in NSW. There isn't a huge amount of speed so even from that bad gate I think she can get over and in control and rhythm. She led at a good clip last start that won't be as needed today. Hasn’t been on the HT before but soft hasn’t slowed her down so even though it's a risk, she isn't the inly one. She profiles like a miler and if she handles this way of going should enjoy Flemington. Filly in form and is a nice each way play ay $15.

Race 5 | 4. Cilacap (each-way)

This girl always runs well and some of those efforts last prep in strong races behind really good G1 horses! She was brilliant in Adelaide before the spell and the only reason we get the price is due to the gate. Lot of scratchings make it a bit better but still widest barrier. She wull go back and work home. Fitness won't be an issue with 3 decent trails under her belt. The heavy track again a question but I think she will be ok. Enjoys Flem and the 1400m. Way over the odds at $17.

Race 6 | 3. The Next Episode

Resumes today and even though there's no heavy track query. I think this horse could be an absolute stud. I know Natural Fling has race fitness over him but he dealt with her very comfortably on the Gold Coast in the winter. Has trialled up really well and the 1100 metre kick off point I like. If he handles the straight and I'm betting he will he'll belt them.

Race 7 | 2. Berkeley Square (each-way)

The rain is absolutely a major positive for this bloke who always gives his all. He will need a little luck from that gate but I think there's a bit of tempo that will help him get cover without getting all the way back. I thought he was brilliant last start having to work and be exposed wide a long way out and the start previous he was very good carrying a huge weight. He loves Flemington, he loves the slop and the distance is no issue. This bloke is my biggest each way bet of the day and I think he can earn that golden ticket to the Melbourne Cup.

Race 8 | 5. Aeliana (win) & 7. Zahrann (each-way)

Really open Group 1 where there is no speed which will make it hard for a couple.

I'll start with Aeliana who was great second half after some worries resuming but from that gate and stalking probably Sir Delius will suit her today. 2000m third-up works a treat and the more rain I think plays to her advantage then a couple of the others. She is my major winning bet!

Zahrann is this years Half Yours and was my tip on a dry track. Gate 1 might be an issue with the track later in the day. Slow tempo probably doesn't help him either but he is a quality horse who will go very close in the Caulfield Cup. Those horses normally run well in this race. He has been ok on heavy tracks but that grade was a lot lower than this. I've had a little each way play because I like him a lot even though the conditions ands race setup work against him.

Race 9 | 3. Arkansaw Kid

He is fit as hell fourth up, loves the straight and the heavy track. He is drawn wide which will work and the 1200m is his sweet spot. Was really good last start late and that’s the right form outside of Skybird. Has to give her weight but I think he enjoy the slop more than her. Really like him to run well and have backed him to do so!

Race 10 | 4. Amenable

His second-up form isn't always great but new stable, heavy track and up to the 1400m makes me think he can outrun his past. Always runs in nice races and his first-up run was good enough to contend here. Should be able to speed map ok behind the speed and get out in plenty of time. Has run well at Flemington and ran well in a G1 on a heavy track a few years back. Not sure he is going that well but I think he has a sniff with his setup today.

RANDWICK

Race 1 | 7. Agita

No major bet here in the Midway but this bloke back to the 1800m and fourth up will be ready to run well. Suited nicely in this type of grade and there is a bit of speed so being back won't be an issue. Over the odds for sure and a nice each way play with this set up!

Race 2 | 8. Nonu

First time we see the 2yo so be very careful as per but this bloke's trial was really impressive. Drawn lovely to be prominent in the run and was strong late in the trial. Again no major bet but looks impressive. Flying Houdini the one they will have to catch and trialled really well also.

Race 3 | 13. Shraddha

Drawn better than Shezablaze and that’s the win here for me! This girl has trialled well and I think she had a bit more to give if she was asked. That gate is perfect as there will be some speed and she can camp right on the back of them! If the rain comes her breeding suggests that won't slow her down! Again not a major bet but I have had a little on this girl as $6 feels decent enough!

Race 4 | 1. Genesis Runner

Too short now but there is a reason for that! He will win! Got a bit too far back when squeezed a little and then again onto the corner had no room. Hit the line really well and feels like a Miler and beyond. Spring Champion?. Blinkers go on and from that gate I expect him to be closer in the run. Been up a while but the races have been spaced well and feels like he has the perfect setup. He is quite tractable on any ground and honestly there isn't a huge amount of depth to this race. Watch out for the filly Your Colour. I doubt she can beat Genesis but she is crying out for further and might end up an Oaks Filly either here or in the autumn.

Race 5 | 18. Chispa (each-way)

Unleeshing is going to be mighty hard to beat but is short for a girl up ia bit n grade! She does have zero weight and chased home a couple of nice horses this prep. She will get back a lot but the speed will be on and that will help! It sounds like I am backing her but I am not! I am backing Chispa each way as she gets further in trip. She was really good in the winter in Group races (Oaks included) I backed her first up and thought was good but clearly needed further. Siena Grima claim has her carrying zero weight and the speed will only help. Has won second-up before (much easier) and will be better again third up but $23 is overs for her in an open race.

Race 6 | 3. Global Goal (BEST IN SYD)

This girl is ready for the mile. Hit that little flat spot in the lead up (first and second both in this race) and I think her run was better for this. Bangkok Hottie was two runs in front and Striking Alibi I'm not as sold on the mile as I am with this girl. The best miler from that gate to go and sit real close and turn the pressure up before the bend. If she is out with room to build I think she will be too strong and tough for them! I am very keen!!!

Race 7 | 5. Juja Kibo

Feel he has been tracking towards the 2400m perfectly in the two runs this prep! Can sit close enough again like last start at the leader (will lead again today) won. He meets him better at the weights. He runs well third up and any rain wouldn’t bother him at all! I have a few in the quaddie as it's an open Metrop but I think this bloke has the most improvement from the last race they ran in. I'm happy to take the fave (Aethelwulf) on. This is much much tougher than what he has been against in what is now a long prep. He could announce himself as a genuine superstar but not at that price! He is the quaddie currently but if the track gets wet, I'll risk him totally.

Race 8 | 3. Autumn Boy

Has ran the Randwick mile twice and both times on Sheza Alibi beat him home! She isn't here! But JMac is from a perfect gate and the speed map to suit. In saying that he will need to find a split but in JMac we trust. He was really good last start (again behind Sheza Alibi) and his third up peaking form for the 1600m is perfect. I think he is well weighted considering Well Written has only 0.5kgs less and she has to prove it here! I think he is legit chance in the Cox Plate and I believe only bad luck can beat him here (fingers crossed).

Race 9 | 15. Plaintiff

I thought this girl was ok resuming and she did finish next to Lazurra so the form isn't too bad. Will need some luck as the inside gate won't be used to advantage as she normally slides back. There will be plenty of speed though so she will be strong late. Stays at the 1200m which works and she runs well second up. Tempted deserves to be red hot and is in the quaddie with Plaintiff who is over the odds and a nice each way or more places play!

Race 10 | 4. Beskar

Will get a great speed map from that gate behind the speed and up to 1200m suits him better than the 1000m first up. This is way easier than that as well and his second up form is very good. Won't want a huge amount of rain but soft going won't stop him too much. The money will come late I think so shop early but I am very keen he will come on really well from that first run and win here!

David Taggart

FLEMINGTON

Race 2 | 13. Esmahli

Was good first-up coming from worse than midfield to hit the line failing to pick up Cabriole who was favourite for this. Steps up in trip suits, will race closer to the speed and will handle the heavy. I assume he has drawn the right side of the straight.

Race 3 | 6. Icy You (value)

Hasn’t finished further back than second in his three runs to date. He just missed out at Caulfield last start when running over this trip for the first time. Has the vigour of Froggy and he looks a great each-way play at odds.

Race 5 | 7. Gold Coast Belle (BEST)

Ruined her picket fence last start after she was slow out and then done too much work getting across. Will relish the conditions and she deserves another chance. She can bounce back.

Race 6 | 3. The Next Episode

Resumes and he has had a win over Natural Fling in a 2yo race up on the Gold Coast in May. Smashed them in a listed race his only run on the heavy and is ready to go off his trials. The big push is Zahra to ride as he gets off Mbube.

RANDWICK

Race 5 | 2. I'mintown

Hits this third-up and will find this much easier than his previous two runs this prep. Does draw sticky but I expect him to roll forward, he just look over the odds.

Race 6 | 2. Striking Alibi (BEST)

Comes out of the right race for this first-up. Had every chance first up box seating and just couldn’t pick up the leader in Plagiarism. Draws perfect again and he should be going close.