Horse Racing

39 minutes ago

Saturday best bets from Luke, Taggart & Brown (14/11)

By SENTrack

Cam Luke, David Taggart & Campbell Brown have your Saturday sorted on Trackside.

The lads have taken a close look at Sandown, Newcastle & Ascot in a bid to find the family some winners.

See their best bets below:👇

Cam Luke

SANDOWN

Race 1 | 12. Ichnusa

Is crying out for 2400 metres and he gets it today third up. I'm not as sure he goes back today as that was gate driven so if he was to be a little more prominent in the run it wouldn't surprise me. I'm not certain there is much speed. Heavy track won't be a concern and I think he is the progressive type who wins these races well.

Race 2 | 9. Parvenu

This girl was really good in her first prep and contested a Group 1 and I like a 1300 metre kick off. Befuddle and Bacash will ensure speed even with the now small field and that will work for her. Has trialled up well and the heavy track won't be a hindrance. She'll get further into the prep and she'll enjoy that but I think she can run really well today.

Race 4 | 6. Geneva

Was pretty good resuming from a wide gate and only just got pinched late, today from that really good gate I expect BS to go forward and possibly control the race or at worst box seat. Up to the 1800 is a win and being a Kiwi I don’t expect the rained track to hurt him. Placed in NZ derby so has some class and think today's set up works really well.

Race 5 | 11. Consulate (BEST)

Had absolutely no luck at Flemington, should have pushed Regal Ambition and based on that run the rise to the 1600 is a big win. She broker her maiden on a HT so the conditions won't phase her. Drawn nicely to stalk the speed three pairs back. There will be speed in the race (Fast Freddie, Meness and Harry Lime will make it fast). That will help this girl. Jmac goes back on also a win. She has worked into this prep and I think todays target will have her cherry ripe.

Race 6 | 3. Don't Hope Do

Is having a really good prep in better races than this. I don't think there is any doubt that this horse is 1000 metre horse and today from that gate will be again on speed. Even though he was really good at Flemington I do think the bend helps him a little bit. The HT is a little worry (has won on a Soft 6) but if his run two back when only Cavalry Girl beat him is good enough for this and he will go very close.

Race 7 | 10. Angels Fury (each-way)

Forget last start when she was backed I just don't think she handled the Flemington straight. Back around a bend is a big win as is this rain which suits her perfectly as her two disappointing runs have both been on a firm deck. Draw nicely to squeeze forward and be on speed, she won second up in that last prep. Not only is she a great each way play but I think she'll go very close to winning this.

Race 8 | 7. Splash Back (each-way)

This girl is a 1400 metre Group 1 winner and I thought she resumed really well over 1200 and was strong through the line. She's drawn nicely enough to squeeze forward and be a little closer if the speed isn't breakneck. She always runs well second up and the rain isn't an issue in the world. This is her grand final compared to a couple of others who might have it as an afterthought and she's well and truly over the odds in an open G1.

NEWCASTLE

Race 4 | 11. Djapana (each-way)

This mare is a 1600 metre specialist who ran really well last start albeit in a tougher race. Hellfire and Zen will assure speed which she will love. She has no weight with the claim and has won third up before. The gate is a little worry as she will get back and be inside but Siena Grima is riding well and in her I trust. I can't work out why she is $18 and I'll be backing her to run a massive race.

Race 5 | 8. Arapawa (each-way)

This bloke flies second up and he hits that 1600 metres today after a pretty good resuming run. He got spat out the back that day and hit a flat spot but the way he hit the line makes me think the distance is exactly what he needs. I don't expect a huge amount of speed in this race so if he went forward from that whitish gate it wouldn't concern me as long as he's not stuck wide without cover. A little bit of give in the track is a win and if he gets some luck from the gate he's a big chance.

Race 6 | 6. Regal Problem

This girl speed maps perfectly as she finally gets back to the 1400 which clearly she needs after the great run last start. The blinkers go on so she'll be prominent in the run if not in front, a little bit of rain is a tick and Nash Rawiller stays on which is a big win. She is getting short in the market now but there's a reason for that, she'll win!

Race 7 | 3. Horologist (BEST)

This bloke won really well first up over 1400 metres and the way that he hit the line you would think the fitness he will gain from that. up to the mile second up today will be really obvious. Speed is a little murky but probably Zahav leads but from that gate TB can place this bloke 1-1 and close to the front. He is a powerful bloke and he overpowered his rivals last start and I expect more of the same today. Any rain won't hurt him and I am very keen.

Race 8 | 9. Accredited (each-way)

This bloke was pretty good resuming over the 1100 metres with a big weight hit a little flat spot when the race was there to be won but that just makes me think the step up to the 1300 today is perfect. Will box seat from that inside gate, always runs well second up and with no weight this horse is a great each way play.

Race 10 | 15. Eagle Express (each-way)

This girl had no luck in Melbourne in better races than this and I love this setup today. Perfect gate no weight and up to the 1300 finally are all big ticks. Scratchings makes the speed a little unclear but Grima will have her close. She will need an ounce of luck in the straight but I expect her to be in the finish.

David Taggart

SANDOWN

Race 3 | 2. Grid Girl (value)

Resumes and she has a handy enough fresh record. This is an easier race than what she’s been up against her last couple of preps and she draws perfect for Radley who takes two off her back. Trials have been good and this is her pet trip, huge chance at the each-way price.

Race 5 | 11. Consulate

Was the unlucky runner the other day and she does come out of a hot race won by Regal Ambition. She can go close and will handle the going.

Race 7 | 7. Ciaron's Star

Should have won last start up in Sydney. Missed the kick then never got a crack after riding for luck. Was a horror watch and she can bounce back here. Have to take on trust.

Race 9 | 10. Small Fry

I was with him when he was so courageous in the Geelong Cup when beaten a half by Point Of Law. He stuck on well that day and you think he will only improve off that like the Cup winner did. Draws soft and will race up on the pace, he’s going to be hard to beat.

NEWCASTLE

Race 3 | 2. Condone (Value)

Ran third in that race and looks the each-way play. Draws out but will roll forward and the form out of that last Highway is too good to ignore.

Race 4 | 8. Cosmic Avenger

Has had great support and he can win. Draws soft to get the run of the race and will find this easier than last start.

Campbell Brown

SANDOWN

Race 3 | 4. Fundamental Nature

Jagged back to a clear last from the wide barrier last start at Flemington. And Willie Pike produced a perfectly timed run to collar Jett Smash right on the line. Stays at the 1400m expecting similar tactics to be applied here but a smaller field will help. Watch her exploding late over the top of them again.

Race 5 | 4. Harry Lime

Was seven weeks between runs in the Amanda Elliot on Cup day. Sat box seat, had a bit of a bump trying to get out at the top of the straight. Looked like he was going to run 5/6 and really rallied, doing his best work to finish third beaten by my best of the day Runarrson and Barracks. Was a great performance. Drawn to lead Saturday will strip fitter and up to the mile 1st time. Should all suit. Good each-way play.

Race 8 | 5. Beiwacht

Gets back to his pet trip of 1400m where he is unbeaten three from three. Silver Eagle and Golden Eagle third's were both very good. Drawn perfectly to lead and JMac takes over from Nash Rawiller for the first time. Is rock hard fit, in from and the horse they have to run down.

Race 9 | 10. Small Fry

Second behind Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup now looks absolutely brilliant form. That was his first Australian run. He never ran in the Cup so presents second up Saturday. Has drawn well and if can replicate Geelong Cup run, will be hard to beat.

NEWCASTLE

Race 8 | 10. Chidiac

She's one of the stars of the country circuit with two Kosciuszko's and a Country Championships Barn Dance. Has won seven from 14. Got right back and ran home very well in the Kosciuszko first up but never a factor. Drawn much better Saturday, goes slightly up in trip from 1200m to 1300m where she is two from three, drops from 58kgs to 54kgs and has a decent second up record. Value.

ASCOT

Race 9 | 1. Afireofgidgeecoals

Went under last start as a $1.40 favourite. Three gear changes today. Lucy Fiore can slot in and find some cover and ride it a little quieter than last start. Gets in well weighted.