AFL
8 hours ago
Who wins & why? Tips & predictions for Round 10, 2026
By SEN
What a weekend of footy we have ahead of us.
Things begin on Thursday with a huge clash at the Gabba, a 2025 Grand Final rematch between Brisbane and Geelong.
Friday sees another double-header with the Swans hosting the Magpies in Sydney and the Suns taking on the Power in Darwin.
Saturday's highlight is the tantalising fixture between the Dees and Hawks at the 'G, while Blues fans will get their first look at Carlton under Josh Fraser when they meet the Dogs.
Sunday sees three fairly lopsided clashes with three of the bottom four sides taking to the field against higher rated opposition.
Check out our tips and predictions for each game below.
BRISBANE v GEELONG
Thursday - 7:30pm AEST - Gabba
What a way to start off the round with a rematch of the 2025 decider.
Brisbane remain the league’s best team, although they haven’t fired on all cylinders in each game so far in 2026.
Sitting at 6-3, the Lions have put the foot down on occasion with five of their six wins coming by 26 or more points.
Two of their three defeats have also come by less than a goal. While they have some key names out, Brisbane’s outfit each week is star-studded, and at the Gabba, they shape as just about the toughest task in footy.
As for Geelong, they flexed their muscle in Round 9, dominating Collingwood by 54 points in a game many expected to be tight. All of their last four wins have come by at least 46… Simply put, when the Cats want to go, they’re hard to stop.
Like their opponents, they sit 6-3 on the season. Their best is right up there, but the consistency hasn’t quite been obvious at this stage. With a very healthy injury list to pick from, the Cats are out for Grand Final revenge.
We all remember the last time these teams met, with Brisbane dominating the second half of the 2025 Grand Final to prevail by 47 points.
The Lions dominated on-ball in that game, and if that happens again, they’ll be too hard to beat.
The key for the Cats will be to strike when they get opportunities inside 50. They did that well last week against Collingwood, but Brisbane won’t be as wasteful as the Magpies when they get their chances.
Prediction: Brisbane by 21 points.
Lachlan Geleit
SYDNEY v COLLINGWOOD
Friday - 7:30pm AEST - SCG
It was tough work but the Swans eventually pocketed four points with a blue-collar win over North Melbourne last weekend. That victory made it six in a row and has them sitting on top with a record of 8-1. Star forward Charlie Curnow (hip) and fellow recruit Jai Serong (hamstring) could both return after missing last week, while key defender Tom McCartin (knee) has missed the last two but is also listed as a test.
In the end the Pies were no match for the Cats at the MCG last Saturday night, copping a 54-point belting after trailing by just 10 at half-time. They’ve had one of each result across the last three weeks and sit 10th with a percentage of 99.9 – hovering in the middle. Craig McRae will be without captain Darcy Moore and Pat Lipinski (both concussed) for the Swans, as well as rested record-chaser Scott Pendlebury and ruckman Darcy Cameron (ankle). Once again their personnel stocks have taken a hit.
The Swans return to the SCG where they are 4-0 with an average winning margin of 41.25 points in 2026. But the Pies have been decent at the venue in recent times, losing by only three points (round 22, 2024) and one point (2022 prelim) in their last two visits. Sydney has won five of the past seven clashes but the Maggies saluted by 31 points in Gather Round last year.
On current Swans form and with a few Magpie outs it looks likely to go the way of the red and white at home. They're scoring 116 points per week on average and conceding only 74, while the Pies average 81 in both categories.
Prediction: Sydney by 25 points.
Andrew Slevison
GOLD COAST v PORT ADELAIDE
Friday - 8:10pm AEST - TIO Stadium
Damien Hardwick’s men have endured far from the start they hoped for yet still remain within touching distance of the game’s best. Entering 2026 as a flag favourite, defeats against Melbourne, Sydney and Hawthorn exposed a range of issues distancing them from premiership conversations. However, bounce-back wins against the Giants and Saints has the Suns just out of the top four on percentage. Matt Rowell was a test mid-week, while Sam Clohesy remains suspended. The club has won nine straight games in Darwin, only ever losing two games at their home away from home.
Just three behinds separate a spot in the top 10 and a 14th-placed rut… and Port Adelaide have found themselves on the wrong end of the spectrum. A one-point loss to Adelaide followed by a two-point loss to the Bulldogs, Josh Carr’s Power has fallen agonisingly short in back-to-back weeks, and despite holding onto the seventh highest percentage in the AFL, his side remains just a game out of the bottom four through nine games. Captain Connor Rozee remains absent, while Miles Bergman also misses with injury. Rookie Tom Anastasopolous debuts.
They could keep it close, but this feels too big of a challenge for Port. The ladder is extremely unkind to the Power – outside of their 46-point loss to North Melbourne, the club has lost five games by a combined margin of only 22 points. That said, the Suns in Darwin are one of the great forces in modern football. Nine straight wins since 2022, Damien Hardwick’s men know how to dominate in the Top End, and in the absence of Bergman and Rozee, the challenge only grows for the travelling Power. Certain to compete, Carr will have his men up for the fight, but the Suns are sure to claim this one.
Prediction: Gold Coast by 22 points.
Jaiden Sciberras
ADELAIDE v NORTH MELBOURNE
Saturday - 1:5pm AEST - Adelaide Oval
The Crows have a near-full health list to choose from and need to get their season kicked into gear. 5-4 is still a positive record and if they can string their third win on the trot today against North before heading into a huge clash with Hawthorn next week then they will be well and truly back on track.
Izak Rankine returned to peak form last week and is a clear difference maker when injected into this midfield that has struggled at stages this year. Adelaide Oval will always be an advantage to these lads, too.
After a relatively favourable draw to start the season, Alastair Clarkson’s men have just one win from their last five, against the lowly Richmond. Despite clear improvement in competitiveness this season, the Kangaroos will need to prove themselves with some wins against genuine top eight sides.
A trip to South Australia and a win against last year’s minor premiers could build some momentum towards the Kangaroos being a serious threat for top 10 contention. Nick Larkey would be keen to lift this team on his shoulders after a lean start to the season and a bag to him would go a long way here.
The Crows are on an upwards trajectory while North is struggling to get over the line in some gallant efforts. It would be no shock if this one comes down to the wire as both sides have played out some tight ones, but I expect Adelaide, particularly here at home, to have the weapons to nullify a developing Kangaroos.
Stakes are high here and both coaches would come in expecting a win. The loser will find themselves in a precarious position.
Prediction: Adelaide by 17 points.
Ethan Clark
MELBOURNE v HAWTHORN
Saturday - 4:15pm AEST - MCG
This is shaping up to be a marvellous game at the MCG.
Melbourne and Hawthorn are both coming into this game with six wins each, but the Hawks are sitting above the Dees on the ladder thanks to a draw against the Pies.
Despite finishing 14th last season, the Demons have turned a corner this year – something which has come as a shock to quite a few pundits. With Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver’s departure from the club, Kysaiah Pickett has made the move into midfield, becoming one of the most feared players in the competition for opposition teams. If Hawthorn are to win, then they will need to shut down Pickett’s influence throughout the game, and hope Nick 'The Wizard' Watson plays well.
While the Hawks are coming off a loss to the second-placed Fremantle, if it wasn’t for the Freo crowd stunning Hawthorn late in the final term with Wharfie Time, then Sam Mitchell’s men would be coming into this game with an amazing form reference. Unfortunately, in that matchup, key defender Tom Barrass went down for the Hawks and will spend a stint on the sidelines.
With Hawthorn now missing Mabior Chol, Will Day, Barrass and potentially Jack Gunston, the Dees will be full of confidence that they can clip the wings of these injured Hawks. However, while Melbourne is the fourth highest scoring team in the competition, they have conceded the most points out of the entire top 10. Expect class to prevail here and Hawthorn to slightly come out on top.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 13 points.
Connor Scanlon
CARLTON v WESTERN BULLDOGS
Saturday - 7:35pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
What a week it’s been for the Carlton Football Club. The Blues farewelled Michael Voss who stepped down as senior coach after just nine rounds of the 2026 season. Josh Fraser takes over for the rest of the campaign and his first assignment is the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium.
The Blues have lost eight in a row but were much better in the second half in last weekend’s eventual 11-point loss to Brisbane. They kicked 11 goals to six after the main break in a promising finish. Harry McKay broke the shackles with his best performance in some time, while captain Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh again carried the load in the middle.
The Bulldogs, after four straight defeats, edged Port by two points in Adelaide. It was a much-needed win which has them sitting dead middle on the ladder and in need of some momentum. Marcus Bontempelli’s remarkable season continued, Ryley Sanders produced arguably his best game of the season, and Michael Sellwood had his most impressive AFL outing to date with a Round 9 equal-high six intercept marks.
A quirky stat shows that this will be the fifth time since 2009 that the Doggies have taken on a team on the back of a coaching departure. They’re 4-2 in that time suggesting the ‘new coach bounce’ doesn’t overly impact them.
Throw in the fact the Dogs have won the past three meetings with the Blues, and with the opportunity to remain close to the top eight they should be getting the job bone.
We’re not sure how the Blues will respond to interim boss Fraser. It will likely look spirited at times but do they have the class to win?
Prediction: Western Bulldog by 12 points.
Andrew Slevison
ESSENDON v FREMANTLE
Sunday - 1:10pm AEST - MCG
If there were any doubts about Fremantle’s premiership credentials, last Thursday all but silenced those concerns. Against the third-placed Hawks, Freo put their Superman capes on in the final quarter to turn a 19-point deficit into a 15-point win, seeing them pick up their eighth straight win. The only dampener from that win is that captain Alex Pearce will be sidelined briefly with a knee injury.
While Brad Scott has only won one game in his last 22 games, there were positive signs throughout their loss against GWS. Away from home, the Bombers led for the majority of the match, having managed to get plenty of footy inside their forward 50. But their inexperience was on full display in the final quarter as they conceded the last four goals.
The last time these two teams met at the MCG, Essendon managed to pull off an upset one-point win. In fact, all four times they have played the ‘G, the Bombers have walked away victors. But if there was ever a time when that record would be broken, it's now. Despite the loss of Pearce, the Dockers still have the better team by far, particularly in defence, which should be enough to get the job done.
Prediction: Fremantle by 34 points.
Nicholas Quinlan
ST KILDA v RICHMOND
Sunday - 3:15pm AEST - Marvel Stadium
It’s an old-fashioned banana peel game for the Saints who simply have to bank the four points against Richmond if they want to maintain that they are a genuine finals side. The Saints have won seven of their last eight matches against the Tigers and the expectation is for that to continue.
It’s getting dire at Tigerland with 18 players on the injury list and it means that Adam Yze has very little options at the selection table. The news of Michael Voss departing Carlton has probably overshadowed the fact that Richmond are pretty much down to their last man in being able to name a full squad of 26 fit players. With that in mind, a sixth debutant has been named, with Noah Roberts-Thomson set to line up in his first AFL game.
The Saints will be without their superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera for a further three weeks with a calf injury following a late change that saw him sidelined against the Suns. Co-captain Callum Wilkie is also under an injury cloud and will be given every chance to prove his fitness so he can take to the field on Sunday afternoon.
There are no excuses for Euro-Yroke who have talked the talk off-field but are yet to prove that they are a considerably better team in 2026. Richmond will be hoping to emulate their improved form in the last fortnight whilst getting all their players through unscathed.
Prediction: St Kilda by 37 points.
Harry Cumming
WEST COAST v GWS
Sunday - 6:15pm AEST - Optus Stadium
It’s fair to say that this may not be match of the round, but there is much to play for. The Giants will be looking to win back-to-back matches for the first time in 2026 whilst the Eagles will be wanting redemption following their last home game which was an embarrassing loss to an undermanned Richmond.
It’s been a topsy-turvy season so far for GWS who stormed out of the gates in Opening Round with a strong win against Hawthorn. This was followed by three losses in a row before going WLWLW in the last five rounds of football. Consistency is not a word that can be used to describe the Giants in 2026 but a win against the Eagles would see them 5-5 after 10 rounds and well and truly in the mix for a Wildcard spot.
There were signs of a response from the Eagles against the Demons last weekend but they were ultimately unable to maintain the intensity for all four quarters. Harry Edwards unfortunately suffered his third concussion this year will be unavailable, leaving Andrew McQualter with a tricky decision for selecting his backline.
The Giants could be bolstered by the return of Ryan Angwin and Jesse Hogan who will face fitness tests in their bid to play.
If the Giants can get the win here, they will be well placed to launch an attack on the Top 10 with more stars returning in the coming weeks. Adam Kingsley will still be quietly bullish about their prospects this year.
Prediction: GWS by 26 points.
Harry Cumming




